中長期我國糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)供需(xu)將處于緊平衡狀態,結(jie)構性矛盾(dun)突(tu)出,特別是隨著近年來玉米產需(xu)形(xing)勢變化,保(bao)障飼料糧(liang)(liang)供應安全將成為國家糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)安全的重要課題。立(li)足國內自給(gei),我國糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)生產穩定提高,口(kou)糧(liang)(liang)安全有(you)保(bao)障,但(dan)受(shou)耕地、淡(dan)水等資源約束,我國糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)安全形(xing)勢仍面臨諸多挑戰。
一、中長期我國糧食供需(xu)總體判斷
中(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)看(kan),國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)外(wai)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)市場形勢變化和外(wai)部環(huan)境有很(hen)多不確定(ding)性,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)結構性矛盾突出(chu),飼料糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應安全將(jiang)是(shi)保(bao)障(zhang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安全的重(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)問(wen)題(ti)。立足國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei),我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)穩(wen)步提高(gao)(gao)。由于(yu)耕(geng)地和淡水(shui)(shui)資源有限,在(zai)工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)地增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)、環(huan)境保(bao)護要求提高(gao)(gao)的背景下,通過(guo)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)耕(geng)地面積(ji)提高(gao)(gao)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)的空間有限,必須(xu)守(shou)住18億畝(mu)耕(geng)地紅線,守(shou)住16.5億畝(mu)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)播(bo)種面積(ji)底線。未(wei)來(lai)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產(chan)(chan)主(zhu)要依(yi)靠提高(gao)(gao)單產(chan)(chan),根本(ben)(ben)出(chu)路在(zai)科技。當前國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)、水(shui)(shui)稻單產(chan)(chan)均(jun)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)世(shi)界水(shui)(shui)平(ping),科技進步口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)單產(chan)(chan)有望(wang)穩(wen)定(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),但提高(gao)(gao)單產(chan)(chan)的外(wai)部壓力在(zai)加(jia)大(da)(da)(da),自然災害(hai)可能(neng)(neng)頻發,抵御自然災害(hai)的能(neng)(neng)力還有待提高(gao)(gao);適齡勞動(dong)力人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)下降,生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)成本(ben)(ben)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia),分散的糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)經營方式(shi)尚未(wei)明顯改變。預計(ji)2035年我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)7.7億噸(dun),比2020年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)1億噸(dun),年均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅0.9%,四(si)大(da)(da)(da)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)作物產(chan)(chan)量(liang)將(jiang)超過(guo)7.3億噸(dun)。未(wei)來(lai)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消(xiao)(xiao)費將(jiang)保(bao)持增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)態勢。預計(ji)2035年我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)四(si)大(da)(da)(da)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消(xiao)(xiao)費量(liang)為8.64億噸(dun),比2020年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)1.12億噸(dun),年均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)0.93%。人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)將(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)部分糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消(xiao)(xiao)費,人(ren)(ren)(ren)均(jun)口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)消(xiao)(xiao)費將(jiang)穩(wen)中(zhong)略降,而(er)肉蛋奶(nai)消(xiao)(xiao)費將(jiang)拉動(dong)飼料糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)需求持續增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)。當前鄉村居民(min)(min)肉禽蛋奶(nai)消(xiao)(xiao)費量(liang)明顯低于(yu)城鎮居民(min)(min),鄉村居民(min)(min)特別是(shi)脫貧人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)膳(shan)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)結構轉型升級以(yi)及城鎮化率提高(gao)(gao)是(shi)拉動(dong)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消(xiao)(xiao)費增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的重(zhong)要力量(liang)。工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)主(zhu)要用(yong)(yong)于(yu)滿(man)足飼料養殖、食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)品加(jia)工(gong)等需求,未(wei)來(lai)將(jiang)因居民(min)(min)消(xiao)(xiao)費升級和糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)(chan)業發展而(er)保(bao)持較高(gao)(gao)水(shui)(shui)平(ping),小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)、稻谷工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)將(jiang)會提高(gao)(gao)。統籌利用(yong)(yong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)、國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)兩(liang)個(ge)市場、兩(liang)種資源,有利于(yu)保(bao)障(zhang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安全。我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)、大(da)(da)(da)米(mi)進口(kou)(kou)基本(ben)(ben)維持配額(e)內(nei)(nei)規(gui)模,大(da)(da)(da)米(mi)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)有望(wang)小(xiao)幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)。為確保(bao)谷物基本(ben)(ben)自給(gei)、口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)絕對安全,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)自給(gei)率仍將(jiang)長(chang)期(qi)維持較高(gao)(gao)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)。
二(er)、小麥(mai)供需(xu)形勢及長期(qi)展望
未來15年,預(yu)計(ji)國內(nei)小麥(mai)產量小幅增長,小麥(mai)消費有(you)所減少,產需保持平衡有(you)余。
(一)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)展望2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全國小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)播種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)2338萬公頃(qing),同(tong)比(bi)減幅(fu)(fu)1.5%。生長(chang)(chang)(chang)期光(guang)、水適宜,小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)苗情好,千(qian)粒重提高,單產(chan)(chan)(chan)穩中(zhong)略(lve)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)。小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)單產(chan)(chan)(chan)5742公斤/公頃(qing),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)2.0%;國內小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量1.3425億噸(dun),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)0.49%(以下(xia)基(ji)(ji)(ji)期均為(wei)(wei)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian))。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)未(wei)來15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)略(lve)降,一是在華北(bei)地(di)下(xia)水超采(cai)區(qu)及沿(yan)淮赤霉病高發區(qu)將繼續調減小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)積(ji);二是部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)區(qu)退耕還林還草(cao)減少(shao)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)植。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國內小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)播種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)2357萬公頃(qing),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到2334萬公頃(qing),分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)基(ji)(ji)(ji)期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)0.8%和減少(shao)0.2%。新型優(you)良品種(zhong)(zhong)推廣,精耕深種(zhong)(zhong)、統防統治等田間(jian)管理技術為(wei)(wei)提高單產(chan)(chan)(chan)奠定基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)單產(chan)(chan)(chan)為(wei)(wei)5792千(qian)克/公頃(qing),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)5861千(qian)克/公頃(qing),分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)基(ji)(ji)(ji)期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)0.9%、2.1%。由于單產(chan)(chan)(chan)提高,預(yu)計(ji)(ji)未(wei)來15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國內小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)總(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量將緩慢上升。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)總(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量為(wei)(wei)13651萬噸(dun),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)13678萬噸(dun),分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)基(ji)(ji)(ji)期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)1.7%、1.9%。
(二)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)展望由于疫情對餐飲業(ye)(ye)的(de)影響將(jiang)減(jian)弱(ruo),預計(ji)(ji)2020/2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)食用(yong)(yong)(yong)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)有(you)(you)所回(hui)升,同(tong)時(shi)玉米(mi)價格高于小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai),小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)進入(ru)飼(si)(si)(si)用(yong)(yong)(yong)和(he)(he)工業(ye)(ye)領域數量有(you)(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)加。預計(ji)(ji)2020/2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)總量14727萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加2559萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。其中,食用(yong)(yong)(yong)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)9180萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加80萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun);飼(si)(si)(si)料(liao)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)和(he)(he)損耗(hao)3800萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加2250萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun);工業(ye)(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)1150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加230萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)供(gong)需缺口(kou)304萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)結余量1607萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)減(jian)少(shao)1911萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。未(wei)來(lai)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),受飼(si)(si)(si)用(yong)(yong)(yong)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)波(bo)動影響,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)前期(qi)(qi)下(xia)滑,后期(qi)(qi)緩慢回(hui)升。預計(ji)(ji)2025/2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)總消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)1.398億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),2035/2036年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)為1.416億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),分(fen)(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)減(jian)少(shao)5.1%、3.9%.我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人口(kou)持續增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),預計(ji)(ji)未(wei)來(lai)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)制粉消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)有(you)(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)加。2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)粉消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)9246萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)9337萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),分(fen)(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)0.7%和(he)(he)1.7%。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)工業(ye)(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)主要用(yong)(yong)(yong)于谷朊粉、淀(dian)粉及釀(niang)酒。國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)對谷朊粉的(de)需求呈逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)遞增(zeng)(zeng)態(tai)勢(shi),同(tong)時(shi)近幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)(you)些酒廠也(ye)使用(yong)(yong)(yong)弱(ruo)筋小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)釀(niang)酒,預計(ji)(ji)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)工業(ye)(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)1251萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為1428萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),分(fen)(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.8%、24.2%。近3~5年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)部分(fen)(fen)超期(qi)(qi)儲存(cun)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)將(jiang)用(yong)(yong)(yong)作飼(si)(si)(si)料(liao),玉米(mi)價格又處于高位,部分(fen)(fen)飼(si)(si)(si)料(liao)企業(ye)(ye)將(jiang)采購小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)替代玉米(mi),此后小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)飼(si)(si)(si)用(yong)(yong)(yong)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)將(jiang)逐步(bu)回(hui)歸正常(chang)水平。預計(ji)(ji)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)飼(si)(si)(si)用(yong)(yong)(yong)和(he)(he)損耗(hao)2883萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為2800萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)減(jian)少(shao)24.1%、26.3%。
(三)貿易展望預(yu)計(ji)2020/2021年(nian)(nian)度我國(guo)(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)小麥1000萬(wan)噸,同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)583萬(wan)噸,一是(shi)推進(jin)(jin)(jin)中美(mei)第一階(jie)段(duan)(duan)貿易協(xie)議,加(jia)大對美(mei)國(guo)(guo)農產(chan)品采購;二(er)是(shi)隨(sui)著(zhu)人(ren)民生活水(shui)平(ping)提(ti)高(gao),對中高(gao)端(duan)面粉(fen)需(xu)求有(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)。預(yu)計(ji)未來(lai)我國(guo)(guo)小麥進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)呈先增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)后減再增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)趨勢(shi)。2021年(nian)(nian)由于推進(jin)(jin)(jin)中美(mei)第一階(jie)段(duan)(duan)經貿協(xie)議,我國(guo)(guo)將(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)采購美(mei)國(guo)(guo)小麥,小麥進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)量處于高(gao)位,此(ci)(ci)后將(jiang)回歸正常并逐年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)。預(yu)計(ji)2025年(nian)(nian)為420萬(wan)噸,比2020年(nian)(nian)下(xia)降(jiang)58%。此(ci)(ci)后逐步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia),2035年(nian)(nian)為500萬(wan)噸,比2025年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長19%。我國(guo)(guo)不斷擴大優質專用小麥生產(chan),隨(sui)著(zhu)人(ren)民生活水(shui)平(ping)不斷提(ti)高(gao),國(guo)(guo)內仍有(you)小麥品質調劑(ji)需(xu)求,同時(shi)全球小麥供(gong)應寬松,國(guo)(guo)際(ji)小麥價格低位運行,將(jiang)利多小麥進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)。


三、稻谷(gu)供需形勢及長期展(zhan)望
展(zhan)望未來15年,預計我(wo)國稻(dao)谷(gu)面積穩中有增(zeng)(zeng),產量穩定在2.1億噸以(yi)上。為加大庫存消(xiao)化力度(du),延伸產業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian),稻(dao)谷(gu)飼料(liao)和(he)工業(ye)(ye)消(xiao)費將增(zeng)(zeng)加,國內稻(dao)谷(gu)將從供(gong)過(guo)于(yu)求向供(gong)需基本平(ping)衡轉變(bian)。
(一)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)展(zhan)望2020年我國(guo)稻(dao)谷總產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量21186萬噸,同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)1.1%。稻(dao)谷單(dan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)7044公(gong)斤/公(gong)頃(qing),同比(bi)(bi)減少0.2%;稻(dao)谷播種(zhong)面積(ji)(ji)3007.6萬公(gong)頃(qing),同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)1.3%。隨著科技(ji)的快速發展(zhan),優良品種(zhong)的推(tui)廣、中(zhong)低產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)田(tian)的改造和合理區域規劃,稻(dao)谷面積(ji)(ji)將穩(wen)中(zhong)有增(zeng)(zeng),基(ji)本穩(wen)定在(zai)3000萬公(gong)頃(qing)以上。預計2025/2026年度(du)(du)稻(dao)谷播種(zhong)面積(ji)(ji)3028萬公(gong)頃(qing),2035/2036年度(du)(du)為(wei)3050萬公(gong)頃(qing),分別比(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.7%、1.4%,未(wei)來15年年均遞增(zeng)(zeng)0.09%。稻(dao)谷單(dan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)提(ti)高,預計2025/2026年度(du)(du)稻(dao)谷單(dan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)7176千(qian)克/公(gong)頃(qing),2035/2036年度(du)(du)為(wei)7321千(qian)克/公(gong)頃(qing),分別比(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)1.9%、3.9%,未(wei)來15年年均遞增(zeng)(zeng)0.26%。預計2025/2026年度(du)(du)國(guo)內(nei)稻(dao)谷產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量2.173億噸,2035/2036年度(du)(du)為(wei)2.233億噸,分別比(bi)(bi)基(ji)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.6%、5.4%,未(wei)來15年年均遞增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.35%。
(二)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)展望為(wei)促(cu)進稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)庫存消(xiao)(xiao)化,2020/2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)部分超(chao)期(qi)(qi)儲存稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)飼料和工業(ye)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei),稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)需(xu)求有所增(zeng)加。稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)20832萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)增(zeng)幅6.4%。其中(zhong)食用(yong)(yong)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)15850萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),增(zeng)幅0.32%;飼料消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)2850萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),增(zeng)幅72.7%;工業(ye)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)2000萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)平。國(guo)內(nei)(nei)稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)產(chan)(chan)需(xu)盈余354萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),已連(lian)續14年(nian)(nian)(nian)產(chan)(chan)大于(yu)需(xu)。未來(lai)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)國(guo)稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)上(shang)升(sheng)趨勢。預計(ji)(ji)2025/2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)總(zong)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)2.164億(yi)(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),2035/2036年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)為(wei)2.225億(yi)(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),分別比(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)3.9%、6.8%,未來(lai)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均遞(di)增(zeng)0.4%。隨著人民生活水平提高,我(wo)國(guo)城(cheng)鄉居民人均口(kou)糧(liang)(liang)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)遞(di)減(jian),稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)正在從(cong)以數量(liang)為(wei)主的(de)溫飽型向重(zhong)視質量(liang)的(de)營養型轉變。從(cong)需(xu)求結構看,口(kou)糧(liang)(liang)需(xu)求占稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)需(xu)求總(zong)量(liang)的(de)比(bi)重(zhong)將(jiang)(jiang)緩(huan)慢下降(jiang),中(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)70%以上(shang)。預計(ji)(ji)2025/2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)食用(yong)(yong)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)1.594億(yi)(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)0.6%;2035/2036年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)為(wei)1.608億(yi)(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)1.4%,未來(lai)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均遞(di)增(zeng)0.1%。考慮到(dao)飼料糧(liang)(liang)供(gong)應偏(pian)緊,而未來(lai)稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)大于(yu)需(xu),超(chao)期(qi)(qi)儲存稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)飼料消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)的(de)數量(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)增(zeng)加。預計(ji)(ji)2025/2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)飼用(yong)(yong)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)3136萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)10%;2035/2036年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)為(wei)2835萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)基(ji)期(qi)(qi)下降(jiang)0.5%,未來(lai)15年(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均遞(di)減(jian)0.04%。稻(dao)(dao)谷(gu)工業(ye)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)主要用(yong)(yong)于(yu)食品加工、酒精(jing)等,預計(ji)(ji)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)需(xu)求將(jiang)(jiang)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)增(zeng)長(chang)。
(三)貿易(yi)展(zhan)望(wang)受匯率、國(guo)際大(da)(da)米(mi)價格波動、貿易(yi)政策以及宏觀經濟等影響(xiang),近些年(nian)我國(guo)大(da)(da)米(mi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)波動特征(zheng)明顯(xian)。2018年(nian)、2019年(nian)大(da)(da)米(mi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)下降(jiang),出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加。2019年(nian)大(da)(da)米(mi)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)為(wei)2004年(nian)以來(lai)最高水平(ping)。2020年(nian)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)大(da)(da)米(mi)230萬噸(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)減少(shao)44.8萬噸(dun),減幅16.3%;進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)大(da)(da)米(mi)294萬噸(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加39萬噸(dun),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅15.3%。為(wei)深化供給側結構性改革,在確保糧(liang)食安(an)全的大(da)(da)前(qian)提下,未來(lai)大(da)(da)米(mi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)將維持小幅波動,預(yu)計(ji)2025/2026年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)稻谷(按大(da)(da)米(mi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)量除0.7折算,下同(tong))進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)423萬噸(dun),2035/2036年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)455萬噸(dun),分別比(bi)(bi)基期(qi)下降(jiang)23.1%、17.3%,未來(lai)15年(nian)年(nian)均(jun)遞(di)(di)減1.3%。預(yu)計(ji)2025/2026年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)稻谷出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)432萬噸(dun),2035/2036年(nian)度(du)(du)(du)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)530萬噸(dun),分別比(bi)(bi)基期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長8%、32.5%,未來(lai)15年(nian)年(nian)均(jun)遞(di)(di)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.9%。
四、不(bu)(bu)確(que)定性(xing)分析預測結果(guo)可能受到天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)趨勢、貿(mao)(mao)易政策(ce)、社會(hui)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)等(deng)(deng)因素(su)(su)(su)(su)的(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)因素(su)(su)(su)(su)。糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)難(nan)以擺脫(tuo)靠天(tian)吃飯的(de)(de)局面,干旱、洪(hong)澇、臺(tai)風、高溫、低(di)溫、早(zao)霜等(deng)(deng)天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)因素(su)(su)(su)(su)對糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)單產(chan)和(he)品質影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)較大。全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)候變暖(nuan)趨勢加(jia)劇,厄爾(er)尼諾和(he)拉尼娜現(xian)象(xiang)將影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)農業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan),全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)受天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)的(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定性(xing)增加(jia)。貿(mao)(mao)易因素(su)(su)(su)(su)。新(xin)(xin)冠(guan)肺炎疫(yi)(yi)情(qing)讓各(ge)國(guo)(guo)再次認識到保障糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)貿(mao)(mao)易穩定的(de)(de)重要性(xing)。各(ge)國(guo)(guo)政府出(chu)于本國(guo)(guo)利益出(chu)臺(tai)了(le)一些政策(ce)措施,都(dou)對全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)貿(mao)(mao)易產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)重大影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。主要糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)農業(ye)(ye)、貿(mao)(mao)易和(he)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)品安全(quan)(quan)政策(ce)將對糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)進出(chu)口(kou)帶來影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。社會(hui)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)因素(su)(su)(su)(su)。未來人口(kou)增長、經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展和(he)城鎮(zhen)化水平提高推動(dong)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消費需(xu)求剛(gang)性(xing)增長。糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)供需(xu)受全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)、貨幣(bi)政策(ce)、匯(hui)率政策(ce)等(deng)(deng)因素(su)(su)(su)(su)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang),也(ye)受突發公共衛生(sheng)(sheng)事(shi)件和(he)戰(zhan)爭等(deng)(deng)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定性(xing)因素(su)(su)(su)(su)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。2020年新(xin)(xin)冠(guan)肺炎疫(yi)(yi)情(qing)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)蔓延,疫(yi)(yi)情(qing)沖擊(ji)下國(guo)(guo)際(ji)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)貿(mao)(mao)易和(he)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)價格出(chu)現(xian)較大波動(dong)。
五、保障國家(jia)糧(liang)食安全的對策建議
(一)穩面(mian)(mian)積(ji)提單產(chan),保(bao)(bao)障國內糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)嚴守18億畝耕(geng)地紅線,全面(mian)(mian)落實永(yong)久基本農(nong)(nong)田保(bao)(bao)護制度,實施(shi)全國高標準(zhun)農(nong)(nong)田建設總體規劃。推進(jin)小麥、水(shui)(shui)稻國家(jia)良(liang)種科(ke)研項目攻關,加(jia)大(da)(da)科(ke)技(ji)投入培育(yu)(yu)推廣優良(liang)品種。推廣高產(chan)栽(zai)培技(ji)術(shu),引導農(nong)(nong)民(min)規范化(hua)(hua)、標準(zhun)化(hua)(hua)種植(zhi)。調整完善糧(liang)食(shi)價(jia)格形成機制和(he)農(nong)(nong)業支持保(bao)(bao)護政策(ce),進(jin)一步加(jia)大(da)(da)政策(ce)扶持力度,調動農(nong)(nong)民(min)種糧(liang)積(ji)極性。支持產(chan)糧(liang)大(da)(da)縣(xian)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan),建立一批高標準(zhun)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)示(shi)范基地。建設高效(xiao)節約灌溉水(shui)(shui)利工程(cheng)(cheng),加(jia)強(qiang)土(tu)地整治,推廣連片(pian)種植(zhi),改善生(sheng)產(chan)條件,提高品種抗災減災和(he)可持續發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)能(neng)力。加(jia)快先進(jin)適用、節能(neng)環(huan)保(bao)(bao)、經濟高效(xiao)的糧(liang)食(shi)種植(zhi)、收獲機械(xie)研發(fa)(fa),大(da)(da)力推進(jin)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)全程(cheng)(cheng)機械(xie)化(hua)(hua)。引導土(tu)地有序(xu)流轉(zhuan),培育(yu)(yu)和(he)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)農(nong)(nong)民(min)專業合作組織(zhi),推動糧(liang)食(shi)規模化(hua)(hua)、標準(zhun)化(hua)(hua)、專業化(hua)(hua)生(sheng)產(chan)。
(二)深(shen)合作(zuo)(zuo)走出(chu)去,用好國內、國際兩個市場主動(dong)擴大(da)國內緊缺農(nong)產品進口,拓展(zhan)多(duo)元化糧(liang)食進口渠道,促進糧(liang)食資源(yuan)(yuan)在全球范圍內合理配置。深(shen)化與(yu)“一帶一路”國家農(nong)業(ye)經貿(mao)合作(zuo)(zuo),促進沿線國家農(nong)業(ye)資源(yuan)(yuan)要素(su)流動(dong)和市場融合。建(jian)立健全進出(chu)口協調(diao)(diao)機制,加強農(nong)業(ye)、海關、鐵路、檢疫等部(bu)門(men)合作(zuo)(zuo),協調(diao)(diao)解決農(nong)產品貿(mao)易壁壘與(yu)障礙,優化進口稅費制度。大(da)力(li)支持糧(liang)食企業(ye)走出(chu)去,合理利用“兩個市場、兩種資源(yuan)(yuan)”。鼓勵企業(ye)赴境外開(kai)展(zhan)產業(ye)鏈上下游布局和并(bing)購(gou),并(bing)給予(yu)專項資金支持。培(pei)育(yu)中國自己(ji)的國際大(da)糧(liang)商,提高(gao)國際糧(liang)源(yuan)(yuan)掌控能力(li)。發揮農(nong)業(ye)對(dui)外援助作(zuo)(zuo)用,不僅輸出(chu)技(ji)術、人(ren)才,還要加強國際項目合作(zuo)(zuo),提高(gao)服務水平,為(wei)中國糧(liang)食企業(ye)走出(chu)去營造良好環(huan)境。
(三(san))優(you)(you)供(gong)給減浪(lang)費(fei)(fei),更好滿足(zu)多(duo)樣需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)以農業(ye)供(gong)給側結構性改革為契機,以“中國好糧(liang)(liang)油(you)”行動(dong)計(ji)劃和(he)優(you)(you)質糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工程(cheng)為抓手(shou),圍繞“五優(you)(you)聯動(dong)”大(da)力發(fa)展優(you)(you)質高(gao)效(xiao)、安(an)全(quan)節(jie)約(yue)(yue)和(he)環(huan)境友好的(de)(de)現(xian)代農業(ye)和(he)特色農業(ye),增加綠色優(you)(you)質糧(liang)(liang)油(you)產(chan)品供(gong)給,更好滿足(zu)人民日益增長的(de)(de)多(duo)樣化需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)。大(da)力推廣高(gao)效(xiao)節(jie)能、經濟適用的(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)收割機械,普及推廣智能環(huan)保的(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)倉儲(chu)、裝卸和(he)運輸等設施設備,研發(fa)推廣更為高(gao)精(jing)尖(jian)的(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)加工設備,在產(chan)購儲(chu)加銷(xiao)各個環(huan)節(jie)節(jie)約(yue)(yue)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、減少浪(lang)費(fei)(fei)。倡導節(jie)糧(liang)(liang)愛糧(liang)(liang)新風(feng)尚,堅(jian)決制(zhi)(zhi)止餐飲浪(lang)費(fei)(fei),抑制(zhi)(zhi)不合理消費(fei)(fei)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)。
(四)加強(qiang)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警,完(wan)善(shan)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)儲(chu)備調控健全(quan)完(wan)善(shan)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)市(shi)場(chang)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警體(ti)系(xi)和(he)預(yu)警機(ji)制,加強(qiang)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)市(shi)場(chang)分(fen)析研判。建立準確可(ke)靠的基礎數據采(cai)集(ji)系(xi)統,開展定(ding)點(dian)跟蹤調查。跟蹤監(jian)測(ce)(ce)國內(nei)外糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)市(shi)場(chang)的生產、消費和(he)價格等情況(kuang),并及時向市(shi)場(chang)發布,發揮(hui)信息引導作用。繼續(xu)完(wan)善(shan)中央和(he)地方(fang)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)儲(chu)備體(ti)系(xi),構建更(geng)高層(ceng)次、更(geng)有效率和(he)更(geng)高質量的糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)安全(quan)保障體(ti)系(xi)。調整完(wan)善(shan)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)儲(chu)備布局和(he)品種結構。
來源:2021年第9期《中國糧食經濟》
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